7 reasons why AAP may yet return in Delhi
A lot of people are writing off the AAP and its leader Arvind Kejriwal from the Delhi scene. While that may be the case, the Indian electorate is quite unpredictable and we cannot really know what the core voters are thinking in their minds and how they will cast their final vote.
Some factors which could go in AAP’s favour in Delhi at least…
1. Kejriwal has captured the mindshare of Delhiites.
1. Kejriwal has captured the mindshare of Delhiites.
Some people may be disgusted with Kejriwal, but he sure has captured the imagination of many of the citizens who are tired of things not changing in Delhi. Freebies like electricity and water subsidies may well still work.
He still appeals to sections like the lower middle class who are tired of police brutality and autowallahs who think Kejriwal is sympathetic towards them. Even many people in Khirki Extension came out in support of vigilante minister Somnath Bharti.
2. The Ambani FIR and Jan Lokpal Bill will click.
Some AAP supporters are chuffed that only Kejriwal had the guts to file an FIR against powerful industrialist Mukesh Ambani whom he has accused of influencing the decisions of both the Congress and BJP.
He still appeals to sections like the lower middle class who are tired of police brutality and autowallahs who think Kejriwal is sympathetic towards them. Even many people in Khirki Extension came out in support of vigilante minister Somnath Bharti.
2. The Ambani FIR and Jan Lokpal Bill will click.
Some AAP supporters are chuffed that only Kejriwal had the guts to file an FIR against powerful industrialist Mukesh Ambani whom he has accused of influencing the decisions of both the Congress and BJP.
Even the Jan Lokpal Bill, which has been dismissed as impractical and unconstitutional by critics, should have been given at least chance, it can be argued. Had it been shot down by the courts, then the AAP would have faced a lot of flak.
However since it wasn’t even tabled in the Assembly and Kejriwal resigned over it, he can claim the high ground over the issue.
However since it wasn’t even tabled in the Assembly and Kejriwal resigned over it, he can claim the high ground over the issue.
3. Dr Harsh Vardhan is not charismatic enough.
Whether we like it or not, personalities matter in Indian politics. Jayalalitha, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee etc are all very high-profile figures and extremely popular in their States. Harsh Vardhan seems like a well-meaning sincere man, but he is not charismatic enough.
Currently the personality of Kejriwal, for better or worse, towers over both Sheila Dixit and Harsh Vardhan and hence he may still fetch more votes.
Whether we like it or not, personalities matter in Indian politics. Jayalalitha, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee etc are all very high-profile figures and extremely popular in their States. Harsh Vardhan seems like a well-meaning sincere man, but he is not charismatic enough.
Currently the personality of Kejriwal, for better or worse, towers over both Sheila Dixit and Harsh Vardhan and hence he may still fetch more votes.
4. Vote for both Kejriwal and Modi.
If the Assembly elections and Lok Sabha elections take place together, then the thought of “Modi for PM and Kejriwal for CM” may click with the voters. The Congress is down and out in both the State and Centre.
It’s a straight fight between the AAP and BJP and a confused voter may split her/his preferences. We don’t know much about the AAP’s Lok Sabha chances, but they may still have a fighting chance in the Assembly polls.
5. Last image: Both Congress and BJP looked bad.
Had Kejriwal quit after his dharna that brought Delhi to a standstill then that may have been the last image of him. However, people’s last image before the government falls will be that of both the BJP and Congress MLAs creating a ruckus all day and preventing an anti-corruption bill from being tabled.
In fact AAP had been at the receiving end on Twitter for many days with hashtags like #AAPDrama and #AAPCon trending. But on that day at least #AnarchistCongBJP was a top trend.
6. The means justify the ends.
If the Assembly elections and Lok Sabha elections take place together, then the thought of “Modi for PM and Kejriwal for CM” may click with the voters. The Congress is down and out in both the State and Centre.
It’s a straight fight between the AAP and BJP and a confused voter may split her/his preferences. We don’t know much about the AAP’s Lok Sabha chances, but they may still have a fighting chance in the Assembly polls.
5. Last image: Both Congress and BJP looked bad.
Had Kejriwal quit after his dharna that brought Delhi to a standstill then that may have been the last image of him. However, people’s last image before the government falls will be that of both the BJP and Congress MLAs creating a ruckus all day and preventing an anti-corruption bill from being tabled.
In fact AAP had been at the receiving end on Twitter for many days with hashtags like #AAPDrama and #AAPCon trending. But on that day at least #AnarchistCongBJP was a top trend.
6. The means justify the ends.
While there are many charges of drama, anarchy, vigilantism, amateurishness etc against the AAP, there are no serious corruption charges against any of the leaders. The AAP has consistently stuck to their anti-corruption stand and the voters may still be thinking that the AAP deserves a longer stint.
Many movements in India have seen agitations, have been anarchist and have broken the law. The people of India have backed such movements in the past and there’s no surety that they will junk the AAP when they did the same.
7. Regional leaders get many chances.
Electorally Kejriwal may or may not emerge as a national leader but he is already a strong regional leader. And regional leaders do not disappear in a hurry as the rest of India will show you.
In UP, Mulayam Singh Yadav of the SP had a bad first term while Mayawati’s was lacklustre. Yet both of them were given majorities by the electorate in two subsequent terms. The electorate of Delhi have similarly given AAP an incomplete term and they may be tempted to give a full one now.
While at times Kejriwal looks like he is working in total madness, there may yet be a method in the madness and that’s something you and me can’t say.
Only the Delhi electorate will have the last say. We have been surprised many times in the past.
Many movements in India have seen agitations, have been anarchist and have broken the law. The people of India have backed such movements in the past and there’s no surety that they will junk the AAP when they did the same.
7. Regional leaders get many chances.
Electorally Kejriwal may or may not emerge as a national leader but he is already a strong regional leader. And regional leaders do not disappear in a hurry as the rest of India will show you.
In UP, Mulayam Singh Yadav of the SP had a bad first term while Mayawati’s was lacklustre. Yet both of them were given majorities by the electorate in two subsequent terms. The electorate of Delhi have similarly given AAP an incomplete term and they may be tempted to give a full one now.
While at times Kejriwal looks like he is working in total madness, there may yet be a method in the madness and that’s something you and me can’t say.
Only the Delhi electorate will have the last say. We have been surprised many times in the past.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GNdrK9bRN8
http://www.in.com/arvind-kejriwal/profile-27483.html
Profile: Arvind Kejriwal
Arvind Kejriwal's political debut has been described as nothing less than spectacularLeading Indian anti-corruption activist Arvind Kejriwal made a spectacular political debut in December. His party won 28 seats in Delhi's state assembly, propelling him to the post of chief minister in the capital.
But he was only to be in office for 49 days, resigning amid a row over an anti-corruption bill.
When Mr Kejriwal first broke off from his mentor, veteran campaignerAnna Hazare, to formally enter politics last year, many said he would find the going tough without Mr Hazare's support.
But, Mr Kejriwal proved his detractors wrong, as the Delhi election results show - his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) or the Common Man's Party won 28 seats out of the 70 seats on offer.
His next move is bound to be on the national stage. Mr Kejriwal has said his party will contest the general election due by May.
Mr Kejriwal launched his political party on 2 October 2012, the 143rd birthday of Mahatma Gandhi. He told supporters they would fight against the culture of "bribe-taking" and pledged to contest the 2014 election.
Explaining the need for a new party, he said India was "being sold and all parties are guilty".
Backroom organiser
A former civil servant, Mr Kejriwal won the Ramon Magsaysay award for emergent leadership, widely described as Asia's Nobel Prize, for social work and initiatives to fight corruption in 2006.
Two years ago, he set up a group called India Against Corruption aimed at putting pressure on the government to bring about tough anti-corruption laws.
Mr Kejriwal, 44, came to the limelight in 2011 as the backroom organiser of the anti-corruption campaign led by Mr Hazare.
While Mr Hazare, 73, was its recognised public face, Mr Kejriwal was a member of "Team Anna", which worked tirelessly behind the scenes to make the agitation a success.
As Mr Hazare went on hunger strike in April 2011 to demand stringent anti-corruption laws, in particular a law to create an ombudsman to deal with allegations of corruption, Mr Kejriwal was by his side, making speeches, briefing reporters and formulating strategy.
In August of the same year, when Mr Hazare brought the government to its knees with his 12-day fast, Mr Kejriwal emerged as his top aide, rallying huge crowds, advising the veteran campaigner and participating in negotiations with the government.
Loss of faith
Born in 1968 in the town of Hisar in the northern state of Haryana to middle-class parents, Mr Kejriwal graduated from the prestigious Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Kharagpur with a degree in mechanical engineering.
After a brief stint working with the private sector Tata group, he joined the Indian civil services in 1992 as a revenue officer.
He took voluntary retirement from his job in 2006 and set up an NGO - Public Cause Research Foundation - to work full time to promote transparency in government and to create awareness about the Right to Information movement.
According to a report in The Caravan magazine, Mr Kejriwal has "no personal story of extraordinary suffering at the hands of corruption".
"What led him to quit his job as a senior bureaucrat and become an activist wasn't anger or bitterness; it was the loss of his own faith in government after a decade in its service," it says.
n a draft document, Mr Kejriwal outline some of the objectives of his party, which included devolution of power, fighting corruption, containing inflation and ensuring fair prices for farm products.
He said at the time: "From today, the people are entering politics. Corrupt leaders, count your days."
Mr Kejriwal began by making corruption claims against Law Minister Salman Khurshid and Robert Vadra, son-in-law of Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi.
His initial protests attracted small crowds and his opponents said it was unlikely that he would be able to translate the public anger over corruption into votes for his political party.
But the Delhi election results have proved his critics wrong with the Aam Aadmi Party showing that it can do serious damage to both of India's main political parties.
During his administration's brief time in office, Mr Kejriwal unveiled a series of headline-grabbing initiatives, including an anti-corruption hotline to help people deal with demands for bribes by government workers.
In January, he spent two nights in the open as part of a mass sit-in to press the federal government to grant him greater control over the city police.
But the true crunch time came when a row broke out over anti-corruption bill he had pushed for.
The law would have created a Citizens' Ombudsman, or Jan Lokpal, an independent body with the power to investigate politicians and civil servants suspected of corruption.
But opposition politicians blocked the bill, arguing it was unconstitutional to introduce legislation that did not have the approval of the federal government.
Mr Kejriwal had threatened to quit if the bill did not go through, and duly did so - announcing his resignation to his supporters outside his party headquarters.
Analysts say that even if Mr Kejriwal and his party are unable to keep their promise to bring about "a complete political revolution" in the next general election, they would at least have the satisfaction of changing the political discourse.
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